But Werth played decent defense in right field, allowing his bat to carry his WAR to All-Star-type heights. On the other hand, the small sample size may be leading us astray. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. In fact, his average exit velocity of 90.8 mph last year put him in the 79th percentile of all hitters, or in baseball twitter-speak, equaled that of Mike Trout. We’re still a year away from one of the best free agent classes of all time, but the 2017-18 class includes some interesting names. The pitch type is different, but unfortunately I couldn’t match that requirement (small samples, after all). But, Hosmer’s career high WAR remains at the 3.4 mark he set back in 2015. Perhaps that’s because he’s not the hitter we used to know. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. This scenario might seem a bit drastic, considering even most sabermetricians agree that WAR does not account for all that a player has to offer. With a whopping 43.2% of his balls hitting the ground, Hosmer is 2nd on that list, once again by pitch percentage. All of his hits so far have been off pitches that Hosmer usually struggles with. What’s important to look out for is if Hosmer continues to punish balls that are outside his comfort zone, or if the launch angles remains higher. Nola will spend the game at designated hitter. Werth’s was up at 12.6 percent in his contract year, a rock-solid mark for a slugger. For example, as of writing this article, Phil Gosselin has the third-best fWAR of all hitters in baseball, and Literally The Miami Marlins are a division leader. Might be because he’s hitting a slower pitch, but the attack path is much better. Secondly, Hosmer’s defense is worse than Werth’s. So it might not make sense to single out Hosmer, but bear with me. It could potentially give us insight as to which teams are moving forward and which are still stuck in the early-2000s. Stop stealing our stuff and ripping off our features, please. Not enough time has passed for things to stabilize; at this point in the season, leaderboards and standings change within a mere two or three games or even plate appearances. Let’s keep the sample of 173 hitters but instead change the criterion to balls batted 0 degrees or less. Why is this such a big deal? That would make this contract negotiation more than just a contract negotiation. He certainly passes the eye-test of being a good slugger, yet most sabermetricians disagree that Hosmer produces lots of value. If he’s truly endorsed the fly ball revolution (meaning his goal and mindset at the plate has changed), it’s very possible that the Padres will add a win or two en route to a playoff berth. Right now, he’s slashing .295/.359/.415 with four homers, 16 RBI, a 112 wRC+ and a 0.3 fWAR. His body’s contorted in a way that’s meant to maximize contact, not power to elevate the ball. All rights reserved. Let’s fast forward to 2020. Eric Hosmer’s free agency will be a tug-of-war between old school and new. Hosmer isn’t nearly as good as he was, and it’s not just because his 2016 average was 30 points lower. Hosmer is often the dividing line between the purists and the analysts. Now they’ll have the intangible, Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window). Even when we're including Hosmer’s “clubhouse presence,” it’s hard for me to justify giving him a huge contract. All statistics from Baseball Savant and Fangraphs, Follow P365 MLB and KBO Analyst Justin Choi on Twitter! Name Age G PA HR SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ BsR Off Def WAR Fernando Tatis Jr. 21 59 257 17 11 10.5% 23.7%.295.306.277.366.571.392 149 1.4 17.5 3.1 2.9 Manny Machado 27 60 254 Weather info Powered by Dark Sky. This early into the season, it’d be foolish to draw any conclusions from the performances of players and teams so far. What Hosmer did a few days ago is pretty rare, sadly. Spoiler: that’s exactly what happened. For your enjoyment, here’s are the full clips of 2019 Hosmer and 2020 Hosmer: But after all that’s been said so far, is this a change for Eric Hosmer? Consider a home run that he hit last year: That swing is nearly identical to the one he’s shown in 2020. He’s a great player on the surface, but digging into the numbers tells you a completely different story. Eric Hosmer is not in the San Diego Padres' lineup for Sunday's game against the San Francisco Giants. Same pitcher, even the same pitch location. And the Werth deal? This is what Hosmer did: That looks much better. After all, according to Max Freeze of Freeze Stats, launch angle for hitters stabilizes after 50 BIP (roughly 18 games), so it’s a bit too early to board the Hosmer hype train. Hosmer’s projected free agent contract has run the gamut, but most agree that he will earn more than $100 million.