As many of you were, I was a fan of Mitch Keller heading into the season as a prime sleeper after posting an ugly 7.13 ERA in his 2019 debut, but with strong skills en route to a 3.78 SIERA. In terms of pitch velocity and movement, you could confuse him with Verlander. But that isn’t the only ERA estimator that said he was extremely unlucky. I’ll STREAM in deeper leagues but since he’s scheduled for Sunday, only use him if you need a win. Kelly dominated the Padres a couple of weeks ago striking out nine batters across seven shutout innings. The timetable for his return has him coming back in May or early-June but I’d bet on late-June. Based on expected stats like xWOBA, xBA, xSLG, you’re looking at 2nd place Rookie of the Year finisher Soroka. Oh, and he demolished the Tigers last time out punching out 14 batters. Might be the most talented of a great batch of shortstops. The Tigers have been running out a Triple-A club over the last couple of weeks. The Nationals just pasted Lopez for six earned runs in just three innings but the Nationals are scorching hot right now. He was also allowed hard hit contact 35.9% of the time. Getting through the sixth innings has not been a problem as he’s gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Last week I released my top 30 starting pitchers for 2020. RotoWire News: Manager Derek Shelton confirmed Keller will start Sunday's series finale at St. Louis, Adam Berry of MLB.com reports. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Mitch Keller career pitching statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball. He draws the Marlins next week, a far inferior offensive club to the Phillies and will be at home in PNC Park. Between the two-plus pitches for Musgrove, he should be able to bump his strikeout rate to the 23-24% range. Kyle Gibson‘s slider has a 27.1% SwStr%! Some more than others. He has a great chance at striking out more than a batter per inning and a QS. Reported as the pre-2020 season number of waiver options remaining. It generated a ton of ground balls and weak contact. Last year, he ha +14 DRS, 1.3 range runs, 7.9 UZR and a 12.3 UZR/150. My body likes to get rotational sometimes, so the cutter came along pretty quickly… or, I guess I should say, the slider came along pretty quickly. ... Mitch Keller, Kyle Crick, Joe Musgrove, James Marvel and More. 28.7% line drive rate is a little high but not crazy. No more wasting time, let’s get to the top streaming options to help win you your league! So I’ve taken things from him, and from two or three different pitching coaches, and tried to fine-tune it and make it my own. Mitch Keller is one of the most unlucky pitchers in baseball’s recent history. - Op-Ed Journalist While it’s not his best pitch, Keller’s fastball averages out at 95.4 MPH and was given a 55 grade per FanGraphs. The Royals are getting Adalberto Mondesi back, so that’s a concern but the lineup isn’t deep, especially without a DH. With playoffs and fantasy Championships on the line next week, it’s now or never. Oh, and his changeup has a 20.3% SwStr% with a 60% ground ball rate. by Retrosheet. I’d love that two-step and would start him for both if that’s how the Royals play it. Ross Stripling, Tyler Mahle, Patrick Sandoval, Austin Pruitt, Drew Smyly, Corbin Burnes, and Chad Kuhl. He pairs the elite changeup with his established slider. You all know I love Tyler Beede. I usually add a few weeks for rehab, he could basically be valuable for only three months of the season. But, his fastball is legit and he flashed it with a 14.1% SwStr rate on it in 2019. He’s kind of like a hard-throwing Marcus Stroman without the elite ground ball rate. Nova has a much better chance for a win as he is scheduled to go up against Edwin Jackson. Possibly available in a lot of leagues since he was a first rounder (in all three of my leagues at least), I'm rooting for him to make the majors out of "camp." Welcome back to the FreezeStats weekly streaming article. Over the last two weeks, the Royals are ranked 28th with a 68 wRC+ as a team (100 is league-average). 04/05/2016: RHP Mitch Keller assigned to West Virginia Power from Bristol Pirates. Nationals’ lefty ace Patrick Corbin had almost identical peripherals with a 28.5% strikeout rate, 8.5% walk rate, and 1.1 HR/9 just for comparison. Dustin May (SP – LAD), 21% Owned home vs SF, Sunday 9/8 He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. I worked on it in spring training, but I didn’t really have one when I got to [Triple-A] Indianapolis. Keller also had a 3.78 SIERA, 3.47 xFIP and 4.18 DRA. The Tigers have been running out a Triple-A club over the last couple of weeks. “I don’t think I’m throwing it with the same grip [Johnson] showed me. It’s been a big help for me. Soroka does utilize a slider and an elite changeup that can be used as a second putaway pitch to improve his K%. His fastball wasn’t bad, but it’s his secondaries that get me going. gone at least six innings in nine of his last 10 starts. Umm, that won’t last. Dylan Cease must work on his fastball command to become successful. by Retrosheet. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email. STREAM. Last season, he threw only 126 innings and finished as the 18th ranked starting pitcher per the Razzball Player Rater. He was a first-round pick way back in 2004 by the Cincinnati Reds. I like the visual picture of what the ball is doing, what it puts in my brain. We just recently updated our player pages for mobile and added a few new features! This year I’m doing things a little differently. Last year, Soroka had a .264 xBA, .304 xWOBA, and .395 xSLG. 23.0% K His 8.29 ERA and 1.87 WHIP are fueled by an inflated .477 BABIP and a low 53.5% strand rate. That ties him with Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw, but Kershaw had a great defensive team behind him in 2019. His fastball averaged 95.5 mph and his slider has a crazy-high 27.3% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%). Remember when I was discussing Clevinger in the introduction? Paid Positions available: That’s insane. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates: Keller struck out five in three innings with one run and one walked allowed. I’ve already gone over how bad the Tigers have been recently, so let’s see how Junis stacks up. The Tigers are the perfect team for Cease to square up against. After a two-year spike in strikeout rate, that mark plummeted to its lowest since 2016. This season, he apparently introduced a slider that he threw over 20% of the time, at the expense of his fastball and curveball. Overall, of the 23 velocity decliners after their first start, eight up them posted a velocity within 0.3 MPH of their first start velocity over the remainder of the season. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted That’s good fam. Kuhl missed all of 2019 with Tommy John Surgery and hasn’t thrown a pitch in a big-league game just yet. My pitching coach was Jim Coffman, who is an area scout for Oakland. Yesterday, I reviewed how the starting pitchers that increased their fastball velocities the most after their first start fared over the rest of the season. Growing up, there were a lot of good coaches in my area [Beaverton, Oregon]. If Cease and Keller are the upside plays next week, Nova is a floor option similar to Leake. 2020 BABIP Outliers – What to Expect in 2021, Analyzing Hitter’s Hard Hit Percentage With Whiff Rates, Staring Pitchers to Stream Week 6 (8/24-8/30) – Fantasy Baseball, Hitter Rankings Update – Rest of Season (Fantasy Baseball). It’s unbelievable. All of those rank among the top-5 at all levels of Triple-A, including his FIP being the lowest (min. While it wasn’t great, his 4.35 xERA shows a run difference of nearly 3 (2.78). In 2019, Keller, in just 48 innings, allowed a batting average on balls in play of .475. Montgomery is not currently lined up for two starts next week if the Royals go forward with a six-man rotation but if he does, he would also draw the Marlins in Miami. I’m STREAMing. Unfortunately, his fastball and sinker are not good at all. The Nationals just pasted Lopez for six earned runs in just three innings but the Nationals are scorching hot right now. Keller averages almost 96 mph on his fastball and his slider has been crazy in terms of whiffs. Keller is the Pittsburgh Pirates top pitching prospect. I can’t think of a scenario in which Mitch Keller’s .475 BABIP in 2019 represents an actual ability. In all honesty, it would not be a surprise to see the Pittsburgh Pirates top prospect not only won NL Rookie of the Year, but also got some Cy Young votes. .322 OBP As a team, the Marlins are rank last in the league in terms of production against right-handed pitchers with a 75 wRC+. Zac Gallen and Max Fried are my top targets in this range. In 103.2 innings, Keller had a 3.56 ERA, 3.60 FIP and 1.24 WHIP.