I want whatever drugs you guys are on. With help from Champion Data, we've dived deep into the footy databases to find some of the quirky, unusual and under-the-radar stats from 2020. AFL player ratings, Remember 12 months ago that Melbourne had "the best list", Oh we're from Tigerland!!!! At the very bottom of the table we have the acts that are plainly detrimental to a team - clangers and turnovers - and which, appropriately, serve to reduce a player’s rating in a game. Credit: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos / via Getty Images. In terms of overall team rankings, last year's premiers Richmond are rated the number one side. MoSTVOTES™ did okay on a team-by-team basis, too, MoSTVOTES™ didn't do too badly for a rookie model, The most unexpected 3 votes according to MoSTVOTES™ were for: If you enjoy the content here, please consider making a donation. A number of acts have signs opposite to what you might logically expect - for example, turnovers are positively correlated with a player’s SuperCoach score once all other metrics in the model are accounted for - which presumably arises because these acts are not explicitly included in the SuperCoach calculation and their natural pattern of correlation with the included metrics leads them to wind up carrying the coefficients that they do when they are included in the regression. Collingwood. Some positions are more accurate than others - like ruck and small forward might be more accurate and conversely key defenders are extremely weighted towards intercept players over lockdown players. Across the eight seasons, the average rating … I went looking for a similar explanation of the AFL Player Rating system on the AFL website, but any such information seems to have been removed in the latest upgrade of the site. North Melbourne Number 2 midfield??? Adelaide Crows Women's Team: 2 x AFLW premiers! Essentially, it seems that SuperCoach scores are mostly basic player statistic counts weighted for the context in which each of them was recorded. I'm not a huge fan of their actual player ratings. You won’t be surprised to find reigning premiers Richmond at the top of the list. The Western Bulldogs are rated the second-best list in 2020, while last year's grand finalists, the GWS GIANTS are fourth. They have a large team of analysts pulling apart every game for individual and team stats. GWS In a future blog I’m hoping to investigate the relationships between AFL Player Ratings, player statistics and player position. Across the eight seasons, the average rating has been about 9.5 points per player per game, though the distribution of scores has been highly right-skewed. We’ve looked at player data here on MoS before using the SuperCoach scores, which are also available via the fitzRoy package. The highest is 50.5 points for Lance Franklin’s performance for Hawthorn against North Melbourne in 2012 where he kicked 13.4, gained 672 metres, had 23 disposals and 70% disposal efficiency. D Moore (COL) R13 (16 disposals but 15 one percenter…, this fairly simplistic post in October of 2018, this post in early 2019 where the SuperCoach scores were included in a predictive model with MoSHBODS team rating data. The combination of Brodie Grundy, a deep midfield and some solid bookends has seen the Pies jump two places from fifth. Seems pretty odd. I can be contacted via Tony.Corke@gmail.com. On average, an on-the-day difference of 1 Rating Point per Player is roughly worth 20 points in terms of margin, as you can see from the chart at right. This is because, on average, they reduce a team’s equity relative to what it was before the kick was taken (when a goal was, perhaps, the more likely outcome, depending on where the kick was taken from and under what circumstances). Overall, teams have had fairly similar rating profiles, though quite small differences in average ratings translate into quite large differences in expected margins. The fine folk who brought us the fitzRoy R package have been diligently collecting historical AFL Player Rating data with a view to potentially including it in an upcoming version of the package, and asked me to take a look at what they have so far, which spans the period from 2012 to the end of 2019. Let’s start then by comparing SuperCoach and AFL Player Rating data directly. AFL Player Ratings data would clearly be a positive inclusion in any future version of the fitzRoy package, and regular updates of the latest Ratings especially valuable. The Western Bulldogs have the No.2 list in the AFL, according to Champion Data. Neutral supporters declare your (temporary) love for Yellow and Black here. In that sense, the SuperCoach score differentials add nothing to the model. Overall, as you can see, the fitted model accounts for 79.4% of the total variability in AFL Player Ratings across the eight seasons. JavaScript is disabled. They are obviously excellent at producing the raw statistics but when they put out analysis to show whose the best players at certain positions I'd say they aren't great. Just five players on their list are below average or poor. Player Cards are now automatically linked to player names in posts. You disagree? Join FREE and support Australia's favourite footy community. Champion data are the 'official' producer of stats for the AFL. (For the technically minded amongst you, for Player Ratings data I found that an alpha of 0.04 was optimal for forming forecasts. 4. That said, it would be interesting to know just how much of the variability in Player Ratings can be explained by simple player- level counts of key metrics, with only minimal information about the context in which any particular player’s statistic was accumulated (eg we know if a mark or possession was contested, but that is all we know about it). The full details will be outlined in the AFL Prospectus. (I note that the data for 22 teams or 484 players is currently missing in the available fitzRoy data, though this will have a tiny effect on any of the analyses here.). Who … There at the bottom, too, are behinds, which also, on average, reduce a player’s rating for a game. This table also makes clear how much the SuperCoach methodology emphasises effective disposals, contested possessions, tackles, metres gained, goals and one percenters, which collectively contribute about 70 of the 75 average SuperCoach score per player per game. Champion Data released the official rankings via Twitter on Monday after incorrect numbers were published on Sunday. The performance of four different models on an 827-game training set is shown at right. The 2020 List Ratings are below as they appear in the #AFLProspectus. This is the same defence which conceded the least points the last two H&A seasons.